New Jersey House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Thomas H., Jr. Kean an 80% chance of winning the New Jersey House 2020 primary. Thomas H., Jr. Kean won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Thomas H., Jr. Kean — 80% model odds (won)
2. Raafat Barsoom — 10% model odds
3. Tom Phillips — 10% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts