New Hampshire Senate 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Jeanne Shaheen a 22% chance of winning the New Hampshire Senate 2020 primary. Corky Messner won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Jeanne Shaheen — 22% model odds
  2. Corky Messner — 11% model odds (won)
  3. Don Bolduc — 11% model odds
  4. Andy Martin — 11% model odds
  5. Gerard Beloin — 11% model odds
  6. Scattered — 11% model odds
  7. Tom Alciere — 11% model odds
  8. Paul J. Krautmann — 11% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts