New Hampshire House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Matt Mowers a 67% chance of winning the New Hampshire House 2020 primary. Chris Pappas won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Matt Mowers — 67% model odds
  2. Matt Mayberry — 10% model odds
  3. Chris Pappas — 6% model odds (won)
  4. Scattered — 4% model odds
  5. Jeff Denaro — 4% model odds
  6. Michael Callis — 4% model odds
  7. Kevin Rondeau — 4% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts