Montana House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Joe Dooling an 18% chance of winning the Montana House 2020 primary. Matt Rosendale won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Joe Dooling — 18% model odds
  2. Matt Rosendale — 10% model odds (won)
  3. Corey Stapleton — 10% model odds
  4. Debra Lamm — 10% model odds
  5. Mark J. Mcginley — 10% model odds
  6. John Evankovich — 10% model odds
  7. Scattered — 10% model odds
  8. John Gibney — 10% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts