Montana House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Tom Winter a 65% chance of winning the Montana House 2020 primary. Kathleen Williams won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Tom Winter — 65% model odds
  2. Kathleen Williams — 17% model odds (won)
  3. Scattered — 17% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts