Missouri House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Jerry W. Barham a 52% chance of winning the Missouri House 2020 primary. Ryan Derks won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Jerry W. Barham — 52% model odds
  2. Richonda Oaks — 17% model odds
  3. Ryan Derks — 10% model odds (won)
  4. Clay Chastain — 7% model odds
  5. Weldon Woodward — 7% model odds
  6. R. H. Hess — 7% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts