Minnesota Senate 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Tina Smith a 68% chance of winning the Minnesota Senate 2020 primary. Tina Smith won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Tina Smith — 68% model odds (won)
2. Christopher Lovell, Sr. Seymore — 16% model odds
3. Paula Overby — 5% model odds
4. Ahmad R. Hassan — 5% model odds
5. Steve Carlson — 5% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts