Massachusetts House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave David Franklin Cavell a 14% chance of winning the Massachusetts House 2020 primary. Jake Auchincloss won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. David Franklin Cavell — 14% model odds
  2. Jake Auchincloss — 10% model odds (won)
  3. Jesse R. Mermell — 10% model odds
  4. Becky Grossman — 10% model odds
  5. Natalia Linos — 10% model odds
  6. Ihssane Leckey — 10% model odds
  7. Alan A. Khazei — 10% model odds
  8. Christopher Z. Zannetos — 10% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts