Illinois Senate 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Casey Chlebek a 27% chance of winning the Illinois Senate 2020 primary. Mark C., Jr. Curran won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Casey Chlebek — 27% model odds
  2. Mark C., Jr. Curran — 12% model odds (won)
  3. Peggy Hubbard — 12% model odds
  4. Robert Marshall — 12% model odds
  5. Tom Tarter — 12% model odds
  6. Richard Mayers — 12% model odds
  7. David F. Black — 12% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts