Illinois House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave John W., Jr. Hursey a 52% chance of winning the Illinois House 2020 primary. Erika C. Weaver won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. John W., Jr. Hursey — 52% model odds
2. Erika C. Weaver — 16% model odds (won)
3. Kevin Gaither — 16% model odds
4. Craig Morton — 16% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts