Illinois House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Daniel William Lipinski a 38% chance of winning the Illinois House 2020 primary. Marie Newman won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Daniel William Lipinski — 38% model odds
  2. Rush Darwish — 38% model odds
  3. Marie Newman — 12% model odds (won)
  4. Charles M. Hughes — 12% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts