Hawaii House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Kaiali'I Kahele a 53% chance of winning the Hawaii House 2020 primary. Kaiali'I Kahele won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Kaiali'I Kahele — 53% model odds (won)
  2. Brian Evans — 16% model odds
  3. Brenda L. Machado Lee — 16% model odds
  4. Noelle Famera — 16% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts