Hawaii House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Ron Curtis a 47% chance of winning the Hawaii House 2020 primary. Ron Curtis won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Ron Curtis — 47% model odds (won)
2. Nancy Lynn Olson — 27% model odds
3. James Dickens — 9% model odds
4. Arturo Pacheco Reyes — 9% model odds
5. Taylor J. Smith — 9% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts