Florida House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Matt Gaetz a 66% chance of winning the Florida House 2020 primary. Matt Gaetz won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Matt Gaetz — 66% model odds (won)
  2. John Mills — 17% model odds
  3. Greg Merk — 17% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts