California House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Daniel Mercuri a 25% chance of winning the California House 2020 primary. Mike Garcia won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Daniel Mercuri — 25% model odds
  2. Mike Garcia — 15% model odds (won)
  3. Steve Knight — 15% model odds (won)
  4. David Lozano — 15% model odds
  5. George Papadopoulos — 15% model odds
  6. Kenneth Jenks — 15% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts