California House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Aníbal Valdéz-Ortega a 52% chance of winning the California House 2020 primary. Christy Smith won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Aníbal Valdéz-Ortega — 52% model odds
  2. Robert, Iii Cooper — 14% model odds
  3. Christy Smith — 9% model odds (won)
  4. Cenk Uygur — 9% model odds (won)
  5. Getro Franck Elize — 9% model odds
  6. Christopher C. Smith — 9% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts