California House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Eric Swalwell a 36% chance of winning the California House 2020 primary. Eric Swalwell won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Eric Swalwell — 36% model odds (won)
  2. Samantha Campbell — 21% model odds (won)
  3. Tuan Phan — 21% model odds
  4. Austin E. Intal — 21% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts