California House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Marla Sousa Livengood a 38% chance of winning the California House 2020 primary. Bob Elliott won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Marla Sousa Livengood — 38% model odds
2. Bob Elliott — 32% model odds (won)
3. Ted Howze — 30% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts