California House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Josh Harder a 40% chance of winning the California House 2020 primary. Josh Harder won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Josh Harder — 40% model odds (won)
2. Ryan Blevins — 33% model odds
3. Michael J. "Mike" Barkley — 27% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts