California House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Jeremy Staat a 26% chance of winning the California House 2020 primary. Jay Obernolte won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Jeremy Staat — 26% model odds
  2. Jay Obernolte — 18% model odds (won)
  3. Tim Donnelly — 18% model odds (won)
  4. Jerry Laws — 18% model odds
  5. Justin David Whitehead — 18% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts