Arizona House 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Jordan Flayer a 55% chance of winning the Arizona House 2020 primary. Brandon Martin won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Jordan Flayer — 55% model odds
  2. Brandon Martin — 15% model odds (won)
  3. Noran Eric Ruden — 15% model odds
  4. Joseph Morgan — 15% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts