Alabama Senate 2020 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Jeff Sessions a 37% chance of winning the Alabama Senate 2020 primary. Tommy Tuberville won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Jeff Sessions — 37% model odds
  2. Tommy Tuberville — 31% model odds (won)
  3. Arnold Mooney — 22% model odds
  4. Bradley Byrne — 4% model odds
  5. Ruth Page Nelson — 3% model odds
  6. Roy Moore — 2% model odds
  7. Stanley Adair — 2% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts