Vermont Senate 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Bernie Sanders a 9% chance of winning the Vermont Senate 2018 primary. H. Brooke # Paige won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Bernie Sanders — 9% model odds
2. Bernie Sanders — 9% model odds
3. Scattered — 5% model odds
4. Lawrence Zupan — 5% model odds
5. Jasdeep Pannu — 5% model odds
6. H. Brooke Paige — 5% model odds
7. Lawrence # Zupan — 5% model odds
8. H. Brooke # Paige — 5% model odds (won)

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts