Vermont Senate 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave H. Brooke Paige a 17% chance of winning the Vermont Senate 2018 primary. Bernie Sanders won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. H. Brooke Paige — 17% model odds
  2. Bernie Sanders — 8% model odds (won)
  3. Folasade Adeluola — 8% model odds
  4. Scattered — 8% model odds
  5. Brad Peacock — 8% model odds
  6. Lawrence Zupan — 8% model odds
  7. Peter Welch — 8% model odds
  8. Jasdeep Pannu — 8% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts