Vermont House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Peter Welch a 9% chance of winning the Vermont House 2018 primary. H. Brooke # Paige won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Peter Welch — 9% model odds
  2. Dan Freilich — 9% model odds
  3. Peter Welch — 9% model odds
  4. H. Brooke Paige — 9% model odds
  5. Anya # Tynio — 6% model odds
  6. H. Brooke # Paige — 6% model odds (won)
  7. Anya Tynio — 6% model odds
  8. Scattered — 6% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts