Vermont House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Peter Welch a 22% chance of winning the Vermont House 2018 primary. Peter Welch won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Peter Welch — 22% model odds (won)
2. H. Brooke Paige — 22% model odds
3. Dan Freilich — 11% model odds
4. Benjamin Mitchell — 11% model odds
5. Scattered — 11% model odds
6. Anya Tynio — 11% model odds
7. John Rodgers — 11% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts