Virginia House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Scattered a 65% chance of winning the Virginia House 2018 primary. Abigail A. Spanberger won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Scattered — 65% model odds
  2. Abigail A. Spanberger — 17% model odds (won)
  3. Daniel K. Ward — 17% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts