Texas Senate 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Bruce, Jr. Jacobson a 61% chance of winning the Texas Senate 2018 primary. Ted Cruz won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Bruce, Jr. Jacobson — 61% model odds
  2. Geraldine Sam — 18% model odds
  3. Ted Cruz — 7% model odds (won)
  4. Mary Miller — 7% model odds
  5. Stefano De Stefano — 7% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts