Texas House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Phillip Aronoff a 75% chance of winning the Texas House 2018 primary. Phillip Aronoff won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Phillip Aronoff — 75% model odds (won)
  2. Carmen Maria Montiel — 25% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts