Texas House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Michael Cloud a 52% chance of winning the Texas House 2018 primary. Bech Bruun won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Michael Cloud — 52% model odds
2. Bech Bruun — 10% model odds (won)
3. Christopher K. Mapp — 10% model odds
4. Jerry Hall — 10% model odds
5. John Grunwald — 10% model odds
6. Eddie Gassman — 10% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts