Texas House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave J.K. "Jake" Ellzey a 25% chance of winning the Texas House 2018 primary. Ron Wright won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. J.K. "Jake" Ellzey — 25% model odds
  2. Troy Ratterree — 11% model odds
  3. Ron Wright — 9% model odds (won)
  4. Ken Cope — 7% model odds
  5. Shannon Dubberly — 7% model odds
  6. Mark Mitchell — 7% model odds
  7. Kevin Harrison — 7% model odds
  8. Deborah Gagliardi — 7% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts