Texas House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Kenneth Sheets a 30% chance of winning the Texas House 2018 primary. Lance Gooden won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Kenneth Sheets — 30% model odds
  2. Lance Gooden — 22% model odds (won)
  3. Bunni Pounds — 16% model odds
  4. Jason Wright — 11% model odds
  5. Sam Deen — 5% model odds
  6. Danny Campbell — 5% model odds
  7. David Williams — 5% model odds
  8. Charles Lingerfelt — 5% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts