Texas House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave David Niederkorn a 55% chance of winning the Texas House 2018 primary. Van Taylor won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. David Niederkorn — 55% model odds
2. Van Taylor — 39% model odds (won)
3. Alex Donkervoet — 7% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts