Tennessee House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Sarah Ashley Nickloes a 34% chance of winning the Tennessee House 2018 primary. Tim Burchett won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Sarah Ashley Nickloes — 34% model odds
  2. Jimmy Matlock — 18% model odds
  3. Jason Frederick Emert — 18% model odds
  4. Tim Burchett — 7% model odds (won)
  5. Hank Hamblin — 7% model odds
  6. Vito Sagliano — 7% model odds
  7. C. David Stansberry — 7% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts