South Dakota House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Shantel Krebs a 64% chance of winning the South Dakota House 2018 primary. Dustin "Dusty" Johnson won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Shantel Krebs — 64% model odds
2. Dustin "Dusty" Johnson — 18% model odds (won)
3. Neal Tapio — 18% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts