Pennsylvania House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Chet Beiler a 66% chance of winning the Pennsylvania House 2018 primary. Lloyd K. Smucker won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Chet Beiler — 66% model odds
  2. Lloyd K. Smucker — 17% model odds (won)
  3. Scattered — 17% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts