Pennsylvania House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Mary Gay Scanlon a 53% chance of winning the Pennsylvania House 2018 primary. Mary Gay Scanlon won, matching the model's top pick.

  1. Mary Gay Scanlon — 53% model odds (won)
  2. Rich Lazer — 16% model odds
  3. Ashley Lunkenheimer — 5% model odds
  4. Larry Arata — 5% model odds
  5. Molly Sheehan — 3% model odds
  6. Greg Vitali — 3% model odds
  7. Lindy Li — 3% model odds
  8. Theresa M. Wright — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts