Oklahoma House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Nathan Dahm a 42% chance of winning the Oklahoma House 2018 primary. Tim Harris won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Nathan Dahm — 42% model odds
2. Andy Coleman — 41% model odds
3. Kevin Hern — 8% model odds
4. Tim Harris — 5% model odds (won)
5. Danny Stockstill — 5% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts