Ohio House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Carol O'Brien a 42% chance of winning the Ohio House 2018 primary. Troy Balderson won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Carol O'Brien — 42% model odds
  2. Melanie Leneghan — 8% model odds
  3. Pat Manley — 8% model odds
  4. Joe Manchik — 8% model odds
  5. Troy Balderson — 5% model odds (won)
  6. Tim Kane — 5% model odds
  7. Kevin Bacon — 5% model odds
  8. Jon Halverstadt — 5% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts