New York House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Tracy Mitrano a 45% chance of winning the New York House 2018 primary. Tracy Mitrano won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Tracy Mitrano — 45% model odds
2. Tracy Mitrano — 45% model odds (won)
3. Scattered — 9% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts