New York House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Jose Serrano a 4% chance of winning the New York House 2018 primary. Alexandria # Ocasio-Cortez won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Jose Serrano — 4% model odds
2. Jose E. Serrano — 4% model odds
3. Jose E Serrano — 4% model odds
4. Jose M Serrano — 4% model odds
5. Michael Farley — 4% model odds
6. Suraj Patel — 4% model odds
7. Jason D. Gonzalez — 3% model odds
8. Jason D. Gonzalez — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts