New York House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Max N. Rose a 23% chance of winning the New York House 2018 primary. Dan Donovan won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Max N. Rose — 23% model odds
2. Dan Donovan — 22% model odds (won)
3. Dan Donovan — 22% model odds
4. Dan Donovan — 22% model odds
5. Michael G. Grimm — 6% model odds
6. Michael G. Grimm — 3% model odds
7. Henry J. Bardel — 1% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts