New York House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Nydia M. # Velazquez a 7% chance of winning the New York House 2018 primary. Suraj # Patel won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Nydia M. # Velazquez — 7% model odds
2. Aidia Velazquez — 7% model odds
3. Kristen Gillibrand — 2% model odds
4. Carl Archille — 2% model odds
5. Kate Davis — 2% model odds
6. Stephanie Miner — 2% model odds
7. Luke Schantz — 2% model odds
8. Joseph Lieberman — 2% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts