New York House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Lee M. Zeldin a 45% chance of winning the New York House 2018 primary. Perry Gershon won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Lee M. Zeldin — 45% model odds
2. Perry Gershon — 43% model odds (won)
3. Kate M. Browning — 4% model odds
4. Vivian M. Viloria-Fisher — 3% model odds
5. David Pechefsky — 3% model odds
6. Elaine Di Masi — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts