New York House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Joseph D. Morelle a 20% chance of winning the New York House 2018 primary. Joseph D. Morelle won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Joseph D. Morelle — 20% model odds
  2. Joseph D. Morelle — 13% model odds (won)
  3. Rachel A. Barnhart — 13% model odds
  4. Robin R. Wilt — 13% model odds
  5. Adam C. Mcfadden — 13% model odds
  6. Joseph D. Morelle — 13% model odds
  7. Joseph D. Morelle — 13% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts