Nevada House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Patrick Fogarty a 28% chance of winning the Nevada House 2018 primary. Clint Koble won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Patrick Fogarty — 28% model odds
2. Clint Koble — 27% model odds (won)
3. Jesse Douglas Hurley — 18% model odds
4. Jack L., Jr. Schofield — 11% model odds
5. Rick Shepherd — 8% model odds
6. Vance Alm — 7% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts