New Mexico House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Monty Newman a 47% chance of winning the New Mexico House 2018 primary. Yvette Herrell won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

1. Monty Newman — 47% model odds
2. Yvette Herrell — 18% model odds (won)
3. Gavin Clarkson — 18% model odds
4. Clayburn Griffin — 18% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts