New Mexico House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Antoinette Sedillo Lopez a 56% chance of winning the New Mexico House 2018 primary. Debra A. Haaland won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Antoinette Sedillo Lopez — 56% model odds
  2. Debra A. Haaland — 31% model odds (won)
  3. Damon P. Martinez — 3% model odds
  4. Paul D. Moya — 3% model odds
  5. Patrick M. Davis — 3% model odds
  6. Damian Lara — 3% model odds
  7. Jesse Andrew Heitner — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts