New Jersey House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Donald W. Norcross an 87% chance of winning the New Jersey House 2018 primary. Donald W. Norcross won, matching the model's top pick.

1. Donald W. Norcross — 87% model odds (won)
2. Robert Lee Carlson — 5% model odds
3. Paul Hamlin — 5% model odds
4. Scot John Tomaszewski — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts