New Hampshire House 2018 — Model Retrospective

The model's final pre-election forecast gave Mark S. Mackenzie a 28% chance of winning the New Hampshire House 2018 primary. Dan Belforti won — an upset relative to the model's favorite.

  1. Mark S. Mackenzie — 28% model odds
  2. Chris Pappas — 19% model odds
  3. Maura Sullivan — 16% model odds
  4. Eddie Edwards — 12% model odds
  5. Andy Sanborn — 8% model odds
  6. Naomi Andrews — 6% model odds
  7. Dan Belforti — 3% model odds (won)
  8. Lincoln Soldati — 3% model odds

Model accuracy · 2026 race forecasts